Number Fifty-One

Tealiberasophoterianistic Perspectives

A Smorgasbord of Candidates: the Republican Nominees

with 4 comments

By Joey Phillips


Are there always this many candidates? It seems like everybody and their mother is running this year. I figure it will be fun to run through the list and rank them based on the chances they have of beating Obama.  This is also a preamble to coming posts analyzing, in a more in-depth manner, all of the actual candidates one by one.


Newt Gingrich – 0% chance – Don’t get me wrong, I love me some Newt. I think he is great on TV, and occasionally very insightful. But he has no chance to beat Obama in an election. He’s too old, too established, too much history to defend etc.

Tim Pawlenty – 2% chance – I honestly don’t know much about this guy, but after making a comment about “Obamneycare”…which is a funny dig…to then follow it up in the debate last night with what was, by all accounts (that I have read), a timid performance on that issue tells me that he is not going to be able to win the nomination. And if you can’t win the nomination you aren’t gonna beat Obama.

Rick Santorum – 5% chance – Seems to be a good conservative, wants to cut taxes, hates Obamacare, thinks the government is the problem, not the solution most of the time etc…But he hasn’t done anything to differentiate himself from anyone else (other than Romney by virtue of the healthcare issue) so I also don’t see him winning the nomination.

Herman Cain – 10% chance – I would actually like to see him get some momentum. I don’t know if he can win, since he’s new to this sort of spotlight we’ll know a lot more soon.

Ron Paul – 0% chance – I also love me some Ron Paul. But let’s be honest. I would have a better chance of winning then him, and I am not 35.

Michele Bachmann –  25% chance – This might be generous, but she seems to be the consensus winner from last night, and is the Tea Party favorite, which counts for a lot right now. Obviously she has to be very careful to not allow herself to be painted as a right wing nut (if she is a right wing nut this will be difficult). I am curious to see if the fact that she is actually involved in Washington politics will help her avoid some of the problems Palin ran into.

Mitt Romney – 45% chance – The frontrunner (cautious last night) is the one that scares me. Any time Eugene Robinson from the Washington Post speaks favorably of a Republican candidate that scares me. Especially when he says Romney’s chief asset is his ideological flexibility…well that’s not exactly comforting. The fact is that Romney is the best politician in the republican field, which is good and bad. He probably has the best chance of running a good enough campaign to compete with Obama, which would be a good thing. Can he get the nomination? He has as good a chance as any. I just can’t bring myself to be excited about any of these candidates. When I am defaulting to hoping that a not really all that conservative Romney wins the nomination because he is the only one I think may possibly beat Obama…well, then I know its weak field. Maybe I will join. It couldn’t hurt.


Written by Jake Phillips

June 14, 2011 at 2:50 pm

4 Responses

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  1. I think you rank Cain too high. Also, you could’ve thrown Huntsman in there for kicks and giggles. If I was a registered Republican, I’d vote for him in the primary I think.

    Jake Phillips

    June 14, 2011 at 2:53 pm

  2. I agree with your analysis in general, just no the numbers. I think Bachman and Romney are 50/50 to win the Republican nomination and general. If Palin jumps in it will screw those numbers and give Romney the nomination.

    Jesse P.

    June 14, 2011 at 4:23 pm

  3. Romney will never make it with true conservatives. He believes in science.


    June 14, 2011 at 8:18 pm

  4. Ellen, I firmly accept AGW but wouldn’t do much of anything to prevent it. AGW is a given with our industrialization, but it doesn’t amount to a hill of beans compared to Non-AGW. Stamp out AGW completely and the needle won’t move because of volcanoes and cows still emitting noxious gas.

    All, I don’t think Romney can defeat Obama. He’s too slick and “whitebread” I think. We either need someone who can completely polarize the campaign (think Ron Paul only younger), or another novelty candidate, like Bachmann or Cain. Everyone else is just boring.

    Rob Swanson

    July 5, 2011 at 5:46 pm

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